Generation unending

People normally compare the economy to a rollercoaster and, as we've seen over the last few months, that's not completely inaccurate.

Sometimes our confidence in the economy's future falls, like when we get reports that imports and the slowly cooling housing market will stanch hiring. Sometimes it rises, like when we see employment levels rising after a scary spell of Katrina-induced joblessness. The rollercoaster analogy is most appropriate, though, in that economic data disorients and frightens far more Americans than it should.

However, when you try to make sense of it all, it can be a thrilling ride. Since I began this blog, we've seen a nation ravaged by natural disasters. We've seen the nation recover from those disasters. We've seen a legendary Federal Reserve Chairman step down, and we've seen another prepare to take his place.

What we're really looking at, it's not a jumble of numbers and graphs. It's really the cycle of life. Things come and go, things ebb and flow, but they never really end. They just float off into the horizon, producing a million and one stories along the way.

Black all over

The results of Black Friday are in and, even though total sales are .9 percent lower than last year's Black Friday, there are some definite winners in all of this.

Wal-Mart scored big, for one. They got the most customers last Friday, and CNN Money says it helped them garner "a 4.3 percent gain in same-store sales for November."

The sales event also gave a jolt to the stock market. The biggest winners, though, were the fans. That is to say, those who actually did participate in last week's festivities would have noticed a lot more discounts than in the past.

Some 78 percent of retailers increased their promotions from past year, according to Goldman Sachs.

If you missed out, though, don't worry. You're not that tragically unhip. It seems more and more people are waiting for the Monday after Thanksgiving to shop on the internet, and that's far more reasonable than subjecting yourself to the horrors of holiday shopping.

AMT promises

I hate it when governments spend money they don't have. Despite this, I'm not necessarily angry that the Senate passed a bill containing $60 billion in tax cuts.

That's because $30 billion of that is driven by a change in the Alternative Minimum Tax.

While the AMT was originally intended to get money from the tax-ducking wealthy, it's fast becoming a problem for the middle-class.

The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center says the AMT will hit 3.6 million out of the nation's 131 million taxpayers filing for tax year 2005 (filed in early 2006), and could affect 31 million by 2010 if nothing is done.
To give you a sense of just who might get caught, this year only 1.8 percent of married couples with two kids and an adjusted gross income between $75,000 and $100,000 will be subject to AMT. Next year, that number jumps to 73.4 percent.

The highest tax rate under the AMT takes only 28 percent of a tax payer's income --that's 7 percent less than the one in the regular tax system. The tricky part is that the AMT drops deductions like child-tax credits and state income taxes, and that means more income is taxed than it would normally be.

Don't expect this Senate bill to save you, though. The House has its own tax bill, and it makes no mention of the AMT. That means this change in AMT law may not happen.

In the meantime, if you get hit with the AMT this year, MSN Money has some ways to get around it.

Out of the blue and into the black

Black Friday is coming, and that means fabulous savings for America's consuming public (and sometimes even a free breakfast).

More importantly, though, it means hope for a few faltering retailers.

For instance, Wal-Mart is practically begging for some of that old black magic. Sears and J.C. Penney are so desperate for a hit of Christmas green, they even cut prices early.

And the entire retail industry is watching to see what how it goes. The National Retail Federation does not expect good things, you see.

"A combination of many factors, including energy prices, the job market, disposable income, and consumer confidence will ultimately affect retailers' sales this holiday season,'' NRF's chief economist Rosalind Wells, said in the group's annual holiday sales outlook.

For those out there who are planning on pumping something back into our economy this season, there are some legally dubious scans of leaked Black Friday circulars at this wonderful site.

So yee-haw, good citizen. Now you can save money, help our economy, and stick it to the man all in one fell swoop.

I love this time of year.

Trade gap gains

Even though America continues to raise the record for the largest trading gap in the history of its existence, Greenspan says it's not all that bad. That is, it's not that bad if it doesn't continue.

While financial markets were not reacting as some had feared to the mounting current account gap, foreign investors would not be willing to fund the deficit indefinitely, particularly as the proportion of dollar assets rises in their portfolios, he said.

In other words, if money keeps on leaving the U.S., countries are going to stop loaning it out to us.

Luckily, the U.S. has been taking measures to improve the trade gap. We've gotten China to unpeg its currency from our dollar. We've inched up costs on Chinese textile imports. We've gotten those pesky oil prices to fall, so we no longer have to rely on European oil.

Because of all of this, our dollar is finally showing signs of life again.

Of course, this isn't the end of our troubles. If you believe that, I've got a bridge I'd like to import to you. Still, it's good to know that Greenspan isn't just understating a problem for once.

The world's saddest roast

The October budget fell by $10.1 billion this year! Only $47.2 billion to go, and then the U.S. willl actually be spending money it has!

Happy times for sure, even though we're now $8 trillion in debt.

And we can't seem to accept any budget cuts that will lower this debt.

Oh, and we now have the highest U.S. trade deficit of all time. Of course, that really can't be blamed on the fiscal policy of the U.S.

The 11.4 percent increase in the deficit reflected the fact that imports jumped by 2.4 percent to a record $171.3 billion in September, driven by the higher oil bill and a big increase in imports of consumer goods such as televisions, clothing and toys.

So really, the foreigners are to blame. No need to blame any in charge of the U.S. economy.

Instead, let's reward the man who watched over all of this.

Really, though, Greenspan deserves his medal. I just wish someone gave it to him when everything wasn't so obviously falling apart.

Poppycock and the needless flap

If you've read the news lately, you might be thinking that our goose is cooked.

CNN Money says that the World Bank is estimating the cost of the deadly bird flu virus to be as much as $200 billion for the United States. The deaths, it said, will run upwards of 200,000.

However, while those at the World Bank are running around like chickens with their heads cut off, many are calling the threat of a pandemic overblown.

That hasn't stopped Congress, though. Those stalwart representatives of the American people are always prepared to waste U.S. tax dollars, even if it winds up costing you $8 billion for a widely exaggerated health scare that will amount to nothing.

Remember when Gerald Ford asked congress to put aside $135 million to combat the Swine Flu of 1976? Neither do they, apparently.

The worst part of all this handwringing is that fine American businesses will be hurt. KFC alone is expecting sales to drop by 10 to 20 percent, and only time can tell how bad the panic will be for the rest of the $50 billion chicken industry.

Just know this: If you cook the meat, you can't get sick. So stop being chicken-hearted, America, and start eating chicken hearts. Your economy will thank you.